Global business travel is continuing its steady pace into 2026, but with a significant shift towards increased caution, diminished confidence, and greater operational complexity. Geopolitical instability has emerged as the primary external risk influencing travel decisions, significantly impacting the industry's outlook, according to a new study by the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA).

The GBTA's April sentiment poll, reflecting insights from over 500 corporate travel managers, suppliers, and intermediaries worldwide, revealed a sharp decline in optimism. Only 41% of global respondents expressed optimism about the business travel industry in 2026, a notable drop from 59% in January. Concurrently, the share of those feeling pessimistic has nearly tripled, rising from 9% in January to 24% in April.

Geopolitical instability and conflict are now cited as the leading travel-related risk by nearly eight in ten respondents (79%), making it the foremost concern for the industry globally. The impact is particularly pronounced in Europe, where over 92% of respondents identify geopolitics as a primary risk, compared to 72% in North America.

Organizations are still undertaking trips, spending, and meetings, but they are doing so amid escalating conflicts, higher costs, and growing disruption. This cautious approach is reshaping how, where, and why companies are traveling. Real-world consequences include route and itinerary adjustments for 50% of buyers, suspension of travel to affected regions for another 50%, and a re-evaluation of duty of care policies for 36%.

Suzanne Neufang, CEO of GBTA, stated, “What we're seeing is not a broad pullback from business travel, but a more deliberate and carefully managed approach to it. Organizations continue to travel and meet – and innovate – but they're doing so while adapting to rising costs, operational friction and escalating geopolitical tensions.”

The heightened geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East, are having tangible effects. Approximately 76% of buyers report that geopolitical conflicts are moderately or significantly impacting their organization's business travel and meetings decisions. Travel suppliers are even more acutely affected, with over 83% indicating that these conflicts materially impact their customers.

Furthermore, geopolitical risks are influencing meetings and events planning, with 38% of buyers less likely to host multinational meetings in the U.S. than they were six months prior. Over half of buyers (56%) have changed their meetings or events strategy, opting for virtual formats, cancellations, reduced attendance, or relocation of events.

While overall business travel volume is not seeing a widespread pullback, the outlook suggests a potential softening. Approximately 28% of buyers now expect business travel volume to decline in 2026, an increase from 16% in January.

The rising cost of travel is another significant challenge, with 82% of respondents highlighting affordability as a key factor shaping travel strategies.

This cautious sentiment, driven by geopolitical instability and rising costs, could have implications for sectors like the U.S. hospitality industry, which may see a negative impact from potential declines in U.S. meetings and events.